Bitcoin is surging. This is why it may not last

March 6, 2024 — 8.59am

Stephen Bartholomeusz

Senior business columnist

Amid a big surge to record levels and wild gyrations, bitcoin is back in mainstream consciousness. Whether or not that lasts may be dependent on what the US Federal Reserve does or doesn’t do this year.

Overnight, bitcoin briefly topped $US69,000 ($106,000) before tumbling back to around $US64,000. At its peak, the cryptocurrency had soared nearly 80 per cent in the past year and more than 300 per cent from its recent nadir in November 2022.

There are some crypto-specific factors in the resurgence of the flagship for crypto assets, the most significant of which has been the US Securities and Exchange Commission’s begrudging decision to approve the spot trading of bitcoins by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January.

That approval came after a court ruling last August that the commission had improperly denied an application from an asset manager to create a bitcoin ETF.

It was that judgement that rekindled the market for bitcoin and which has seen the market capitalisation of crypto assets double, from about $US1.2 trillion before the ruling to around $US2.4 trillion this week.

The ETFs have attracted about $US15 billion of inflows in two months, with major asset managers like BlackRock involved. That’s given bitcoin a tinge of mainstream credibility it previously didn’t have, and one which looked impossible when, after peaking at almost $US3 trillion in 2022, the crypto market crashed amid a wave of collapses and scandals. Bitcoin was trading below $US16,000 in late November of that year.

The other crypto-related influence over recent bitcoin prices has been the imminent “halving” of the number of coins that can be “mined,” an event that occurs every four years and which restricts the volume of new coins available to the market.

With new sources of demand created by the ETFs, which make it simpler and less risky for investors to trade bitcoins than the complex, cumbersome and demonstrably risky system of digital wallets and intermediaries with questionable credentials, the halving will tighten supply.

The introduction of the ETFs and the halving, which will occur next month, are, however, the micro influences on bitcoin’s price. The more powerful macro influence is the direction of US interest rates.

It is no coincidence that the tanking of bitcoin’s price, and those of crypto assets more generally, occurred during a period when the Fed was ratcheting up US interest rates, and with its quantitative tightening (allowing bonds and mortgages it acquired during the pandemic to mature without investing the proceeds), tightening US financial conditions.

The slump in the value of crypto assets roughly coincided with the start of the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle in March 2022. Eleven rate rises that took the federal funds rate from effectively zero to 5.5 per cent over about 15 months batter all risk assets, not just crypto assets. The US sharemarket fell more than 20 per cent in the months after the Fed’s first move.

Perhaps because the crypto ecosystem was mired in collapses and controversies through the back half of 2022 – the collapse of TerraUSD, the collapse of FTX and the arrests of Sam Bankman-Fried and Binance’s founder and chief executive Changpeng Zhao among them – crypto prices started moving much later than the sharemarket, which started to rebound from mid-October 2022.

That rebound was turbocharged by the launch of ChatGPT in November of that year, which ignited feverish trading of stocks with artificial intelligence exposures and drove the sharemarket to record levels this year.

The sharemarket’s surge, however, wasn’t just driven by AI or the big tech stocks but by a conviction that the Fed would start cutting interest rates this year, with the bond market at one point early in the year pricing in as many as six 25-basis-point reductions.

That optimism took a hit at the end of January when, after a Fed meeting, it became apparent that, rather than the March cut that some had anticipated, the central bank’s commentary probably ruled out any change in policy until mid-year at the earliest.

Despite that, investors in risk assets remained convinced that rates would start to fall and fall quite materially this year.

Weak economic data for February released over the past few days – data perceived to have strengthened the case for rate cuts – was a major factor in the ebullient performance of bitcoin on Tuesday, which contrasted with the performance of the sharemarket, which fell as the data suggested the prospect of a soft landing for the US economy might be receding.

Sharemarket investors have been pricing in the perfect outcome of interest rates falling even as the US economy continues to grow solidly. The latest data raises a question mark over whether they can have both.

Bitcoin is, on the spectrum of risk assets, at the riskiest end and, with significant leverage underlying its trading, highly leveraged to changes in the risk environment. On Tuesday, the environment was very much one of “risk on.”

That underscores bitcoin’s role as a vehicle for pure speculation. It has no intrinsic value. It isn’t any sort of medium for exchange (except, perhaps, for illegal activity). It is, however, an asset that provides a way to make leveraged bets on a risk environment that is being driven by expectations of what the Fed may or may not do in the relatively near future.

It is notable that, year-to-date, the NYFANG index, which includes all the big tech companies and has been boosted by the frenzy over AI, is up just under 12 per cent. Bitcoin is up more than 50 per cent. That’s leverage!

While the market for bitcoin has been structurally changed by the introduction of the ETFs, which brings with it a degree of institutionalisation of the market, it is the macro settings and what happens to US interest rates in future that will determine whether its surge continues or whether it falls back into the boom and bust cycles that have characterised its past.

The volatility of trading on Tuesday and early Wednesday – up about 6 per cent and then down nearly 8 per cent against the 2.3 per cent fall in the rate-sensitive big tech stocks – does tend to signal, however, that it will remain among the most volatile and riskiest of risk assets.

在比特币大幅飙升至创纪录水平并出现剧烈波动的背景下，比特币重新成为主流意识。这种情况能否持续，可能取决于美国联邦储备委员会今年做什么或不做什么。

一夜之间，比特币曾短暂突破 69,000 美元（约合 106,000 美元），随后又跌回 64,000 美元左右。在最高点时，比特币在过去一年中飙升了近80%，与2022年11月的最低点相比飙升了300%以上。

加密资产旗舰重新崛起有一些加密货币特有的因素，其中最重要的是美国证券交易委员会在1月份勉强决定批准交易所交易基金（ETF）进行比特币现货交易。

这一批准是在去年8月法院做出裁决之后做出的，当时法院认为美国证券交易委员会不当地拒绝了一家资产管理公司创建比特币ETF的申请。

正是这一判决重新点燃了比特币市场，使加密资产的市值翻了一番，从判决前的约1.2万亿美元增至本周的约2.4万亿美元。

ETF 在两个月内吸引了约 150 亿美元的资金流入，贝莱德（BlackRock）等大型资产管理公司也参与其中。比特币在2022年达到近3万亿美元的峰值后，在崩溃和丑闻的浪潮中崩溃了。当年 11 月底，比特币的交易价格低于 16000 美元。

对近期比特币价格产生影响的另一个与加密货币相关的因素是可 “开采 “的比特币数量即将 “减半”，这一事件每四年发生一次，限制了市场上新比特币的数量。

ETF 为投资者创造了新的需求来源，与复杂、繁琐且风险明显较高的数字钱包和资质可疑的中介机构系统相比，ETF 让比特币交易变得更简单、风险更低。

然而，ETF 的推出和下个月的减半只是比特币价格的微观影响因素。更强大的宏观影响是美国利率的走向。

比特币价格的暴跌，以及更普遍的加密资产价格的暴跌，都发生在美联储提高美国利率，并实行量化紧缩政策（允许美联储在大流行病期间收购的债券和抵押贷款到期，而不将收益用于投资），收紧美国金融条件的时期，这绝非巧合。

加密资产价值的下滑与美联储 2022 年 3 月加息周期的开始时间大致吻合。在大约 15 个月的时间里，联邦基金利率从实际上的零升至 5.5%，这 11 次加息打击了所有风险资产，而不仅仅是加密资产。在美联储首次加息后的几个月里，美国股市下跌了 20% 以上。

也许是因为加密货币生态系统在2022年下半年一直深陷崩溃和争议之中–其中包括TerraUSD的崩溃、FTX的崩溃以及山姆-班克曼-弗里德和Binance创始人兼首席执行官赵长鹏的被捕–加密货币价格的走势要比股票市场晚得多，后者从2022年10月中旬开始反弹。

同年 11 月推出的 ChatGPT 为这一反弹提供了动力，点燃了人工智能股票的交易热潮，并推动股票市场在今年达到创纪录的水平。

然而，股票市场的飙升并不仅仅是由人工智能或大型科技股推动的，而是由于人们相信美联储将在今年开始降息，年初债券市场一度将降息幅度定为多达六次，每次25个基点。

这种乐观情绪在 1 月底受到打击，因为在美联储会议之后，人们发现央行的评论可能最早要到年中才会改变政策，而不是一些人预期的 3 月份降息。

尽管如此，风险资产投资者仍然相信，利率将在今年开始下降，而且下降幅度相当大。

过去几天公布的 2 月份经济数据疲软–这些数据被认为加强了降息的理由–是比特币周二表现活跃的一个主要因素，这与股票市场的表现形成了鲜明对比，后者因数据表明美国经济软着陆的前景可能正在消退而下跌。

股票市场投资者一直在为利率下降的完美结果定价，即使美国经济继续稳健增长。最新的数据让人们对他们能否两者兼得打上了问号。

在风险资产中，比特币处于风险最高的一端，而且由于比特币交易的杠杆作用，比特币对风险环境变化的影响非常大。本周二的环境在很大程度上是 “风险开启”。

这凸显了比特币作为纯粹投机工具的作用。它没有内在价值。它不是任何形式的交换媒介（也许，非法活动除外）。然而，它是一种资产，提供了一种在风险环境中进行杠杆押注的方式，而这种风险环境是由对美联储在相对较近的将来可能做什么或不做什么的预期所驱动的。

值得注意的是，今年迄今为止，包括所有大型科技公司在内的纽约方正指数（NYFANG）在人工智能热潮的推动下仅上涨了不到12%。比特币的涨幅则超过了 50%。这就是杠杆作用！

虽然比特币市场已经因 ETF 的引入而发生了结构性变化，带来了一定程度的市场制度化，但宏观环境和美国利率未来的走势将决定比特币是继续飙升，还是重回过去的繁荣和萧条循环。

然而，周二和周三早些时候的交易波动–上涨约 6%，然后下跌近 8%，而对利率敏感的大型科技股则下跌 2.3%–确实表明，它仍将是波动最大、风险最高的风险资产之一。

What does US approval of bitcoin ETFs mean for Australia?

ByDominic Powell

January 11, 2024 — 4.55pm

The finance world is abuzz with the news that the powerful US financial regulator has finally given its stamp of approval for bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), sending the price of the cryptocurrency soaring and enthusing investors in the nascent asset class.

So what does the move mean for bitcoin, and how will it affect investors in Australia?

What is bitcoin?

Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are a type of digital currency that uses blockchain technology to track and process transactions.

It was developed in 2008 by an anonymous person or group of people known only as Satoshi Nakamoto, with the goal of being an electronic version of cash that does not require a central financial institution such as a bank.

Bitcoin transactions are powered by an interlinked web of computers across the globe that are responsible for verifying, cross-referencing and processing transactions on the network.

Every 10 minutes, these transactions are packaged into a “block”, which is linked to the block before it – hence the term “blockchain”.

These blocks are unable to be modified or changed, and give cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin the credentials of being transparent, traceable, immutable, and very difficult to dupe.

What is an ETF?

Sharemarkets such as the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX) offer a number of shares that investors can purchase including well-known local companies such as Telstra or Woolworths.

However, investors can also opt to purchase exchange-traded funds, which are bought and sold just like shares, but instead of representing a holding in just one company, they track the price of a basket of multiple shares.

For example, if you were to purchase a unit of a popular ETF such as an ASX 200 ETF, you’d be purchasing a small exposure to the top 200 companies on the local bourse, all bundled together into one product.

Investors, especially inexperienced ones, opt for ETFs thanks to their lower risk profile than individual shares, along with the level of diversification they can offer.

What did American authorities decide?

The US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved 11 applications from major fund managers such as Blackrock, VanEck and Fidelity to issue ETF products that track the price of bitcoin. These products are expected to begin trading as early as this week.

Major funds have been vying to launch bitcoin ETFs for years but have been held back by the SEC, which until now had been concerned over the potential for market manipulation and the general volatility of the asset class.

SEC chair Gary Gensler said in the commission’s statement that the move should not be viewed as an endorsement of cryptocurrency by the SEC.

“Bitcoin is primarily a speculative, volatile asset that’s also used for illicit activity including ransomware, money laundering, sanction evasion and terrorist financing,” he said.

“While we approved the listing and trading of certain spot bitcoin ETP shares today, we did not approve or endorse bitcoin.”

The SEC’s announcement was muddled yesterday after the regulator’s account on X (formerly Twitter) issued an “unauthorised” tweet announcing the decision.

What does this mean for cryptocurrency?

Crypto proponents have hailed the move as a watershed moment for the industry, believing the approval by the influential SEC will further legitimise the asset class, which has long been viewed as volatile and unreliable.

ETF approval will also theoretically allow sophisticated investors and funds to invest in bitcoin in a simpler manner, which supporters again believe will accelerate the cryptocurrency’s path to broader adoption.

“This further opens cryptocurrency to both retail and institutional investors via a traditional financial product,” says the chief executive of local crypto exchange BTCMarkets, Caroline Bowler.

“It is also reasonable to assume that this will expand crypto markets in general, as liquidity follows utility.

“So while this is an historic day for the industry, the impacts will be increasingly felt over time.”

However, the widely expected announcement is unlikely to be the panacea crypto supporters are looking for, as the industry is still recovering after the disastrous collapse of numerous exchanges in 2022, including the $32 billion FTX.

Regulators are still eyeing off many players in the industry, with local enforcer – the Australian Securities and Investments Commission – signalling last year it wouldn’t hesitate to act where needed.

Will there be an Australian offering?

The US regulator’s announcement will likely spur a wave of crypto ETFs locally, with Queensland-based fund Monochrome intending to launch its own offering in the first half of this year.

In late 2022, the ASX amended its listing rules to allow for ETFs tracking the price of bitcoin and ethereum – the second-largest cryptocurrency – however no funds have yet gained approval from the local bourse, which has implemented strict rules to protect investors.

What has the news meant for the price of bitcoin?

Following the announcement, bitcoin’s price rose about 8 per cent to $69,000. A raft of other smaller cryptocurrencies followed suit, with ethereum gaining 14 per cent to $3800.

Despite the SEC’s approval being heavily foreshadowed, investors are betting on the new ETFs introducing a wave of new buyers, which could further increase the asset’s price.

美国强大的金融监管机构终于批准了比特币交易所交易基金（ETF），这让加密货币的价格一路飙升，也让投资者对这一新兴资产类别充满信心。
那么，此举对比特币意味着什么，又会对澳大利亚的投资者产生什么影响呢？
什么是比特币？
比特币和其他加密货币是一种使用区块链技术追踪和处理交易的数字货币。
它是由一个匿名的人或一群人于 2008 年开发出来的，这个人或一群人被称为中本聪（Satoshi Nakamoto），其目标是成为一种不需要银行等中央金融机构的电子版现金。
比特币交易由全球计算机组成的一个相互连接的网络提供动力，该网络负责验证、交叉引用和处理网络上的交易。
每隔 10 分钟，这些交易就会被打包成一个 “区块”，并与之前的区块相连，这就是 “区块链 “一词的由来。
这些区块无法修改或变更，因此比特币等加密货币具有透明、可追踪、不可更改、难以伪造等特点。
什么是 ETF？
澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）等股票市场提供许多股票供投资者购买，其中包括澳大利亚电信（Telstra）或伍尔沃斯（Woolworths）等知名本地公司。
不过，投资者也可以选择购买交易所交易基金，这种基金的买卖方式与股票类似，但并不代表只持有一家公司的股票，而是跟踪一篮子多只股票的价格。
例如，如果您购买一个热门 ETF（如 ASX 200 ETF）的单位，您就等于购买了当地交易所前 200 家公司的少量股票，所有这些股票都捆绑在一个产品中。
投资者，尤其是缺乏经验的投资者，会选择 ETF，因为它的风险比单个股票低，而且可以提供一定程度的多样化。
美国当局的决定是什么？
美国证券交易委员会（SEC）批准了贝莱德（Blackrock）、VanEck 和富达（Fidelity）等主要基金管理公司的 11 项申请，发行追踪比特币价格的 ETF 产品。预计这些产品最早将于本周开始交易。
多年来，各大基金公司一直在争相推出比特币 ETF，但一直被美国证券交易委员会（SEC）所阻挠，直到现在，SEC 一直对市场操纵的可能性和该资产类别的普遍波动性表示担忧。
美国证券交易委员会主席加里-根斯勒（Gary Gensler）在委员会声明中表示，此举不应被视为美国证券交易委员会对加密货币的认可。
“他说：”比特币主要是一种投机性的、不稳定的资产，也被用于非法活动，包括勒索软件、洗钱、逃避制裁和恐怖主义融资。
“虽然我们今天批准了某些现货比特币 ETP 股票的上市和交易，但我们并没有批准或认可比特币。”
美国证券交易委员会的公告昨天被弄得一团糟，因为监管机构在 X（前 Twitter）上的账户发布了一条 “未经授权 “的推文，宣布了这一决定。
这对加密货币意味着什么？
加密货币的支持者将此举视为该行业的分水岭，认为具有影响力的美国证券交易委员会的批准将进一步使这一资产类别合法化，而这一资产类别长期以来一直被认为是不稳定和不可靠的。
从理论上讲，ETF 的批准也将允许成熟的投资者和基金以更简单的方式投资比特币，支持者再次认为这将加速加密货币的广泛采用。
“本地加密货币交易所 BTCMarkets 的首席执行官卡罗琳-鲍勒（Caroline Bowler）说：”这进一步通过传统金融产品向散户和机构投资者开放了加密货币。
“我们也有理由认为，这将扩大加密货币市场的总体规模，因为流动性是效用的体现。
“因此，虽然这对行业来说是历史性的一天，但随着时间的推移，影响会越来越大。”
然而，这一广受期待的公告不太可能成为加密货币支持者们寻找的灵丹妙药，因为在2022年包括价值320亿美元的FTX在内的众多交易所灾难性倒闭之后，该行业仍在恢复之中。
监管机构仍在对该行业的许多参与者虎视眈眈，澳大利亚证券和投资委员会（Australian Securities and Investments Commission）是当地的执法者，它去年曾表示，在必要时会毫不犹豫地采取行动。

澳大利亚会发行吗？
美国监管机构的声明很可能会在当地掀起一股加密 ETF 的热潮，总部位于昆士兰的基金 Monochrome 打算在今年上半年推出自己的产品。
2022年底，澳大利亚证券交易所（ASX）修订了上市规则，允许发行追踪比特币和以太坊（第二大加密货币）价格的ETF，但目前还没有基金获得当地交易所的批准，因为当地交易所实施了严格的规则来保护投资者。
这一消息对比特币价格意味着什么？
消息公布后，比特币价格上涨约 8%，达到 69000 美元。其他一系列较小的加密货币也紧随其后，以太坊价格上涨 14%，达到 3800 美元。
尽管美国证券交易委员会的批准早有预兆，但投资者仍在押注新的 ETF 会带来一波新的买家，从而进一步提高比特币的价格。

通过DeepL.com（免费版）翻译

https://www.watoday.com.au/business/markets/what-does-us-approval-of-bitcoin-etfs-mean-for-australia-20240111-p5ewkj.html