Dennis Shanahan 20 hours ago. Updated 2 hours ago
在擔任總理的最初兩年半中，安東尼-阿爾巴尼 塞避免了過去三十年中所有前任總理（無論是 工黨還是自由黨）所遭遇的情況：在 Newspoll 的個人支持率突然出現災難性下跌。
自 1996年霍華德（John Howard）當選 總理以來，每一位總理在違反重大承諾、領導失敗或做出錯誤決策後失去民眾信任後，Newspoll滿意度都會突然下跌8至24個百分點。
阿爾巴尼塞斯的滿意度也有下降–在截至周一的本年度第一次Newspoll調查的8個月時間內下降了10個百分點–但它更多的是一種逐漸下降，而沒有像他的所有前任所遭受的災難性下降那樣短暫而急劇的震盪。
只有霍華德(Howard)在擔任總理時經歷了如此 災難性的民眾支持率崩潰，才得以領導政府參加 下一次選舉並贏得勝利。
霍華德的支持率在短短六週內災難性地下跌了 14 個百分點，這是由於他在承諾「永遠不會」開徵商品與服務稅之後，決定在下一次選舉（1998 年）中採用商品與服務稅。
他在大選中贏得了自由黨領導權，但失去了大量席位，聯盟的大多數席位也被削減。霍華德在大選後留任總理，並成為澳洲任期第二長的總理。
他是唯一一位在個人支持率遭受災難性損失之後仍能倖存並繼續發揚光大的總理。
霍華德的直接繼任者陸克文 (Kevin Rudd) 以及之後的吉拉德 (Julia Gillard)、阿博特 (Tony Abbott)、特恩布爾 (Malcolm Turnbull) 和莫里森 (Scott Morrison) 都在 Newspoll 滿意度調查中遭遇災難性失利，從而失去了領導地位或隨後的選舉。
陸克文 (Rudd) 和阿博特 (Abbott) 分別在氣候變化和移民問題上失敗、違反預算承諾以及在澳大利亞國慶日 (Australia Day) 授勳名單中任命菲利普王子 (Prince Phillip) 為騎士後被同事取代。
吉拉德 (Gillard) 在接替陸克文 (Rudd) 後贏得了 2010 年的大選，但隨後因她違背了永遠不會領導一個徵收碳稅的政府的選舉承諾而遭受了災難性的支持率損失 – 11 個百分點。
工黨政府從未恢復元氣，陸克文在 2013 年選舉失利前不久取代吉拉德成為工黨領袖和總理。
雖然阿博特在 2013 年的選舉中以壓倒性大多數的優勢勝出，但他的個人支持率卻遭受了兩次重創，一次是他違背了不削減醫療和教育經費的選舉承諾，另一次是他讓菲利普王子成為騎士，這甚至讓他自己的同事都感到驚訝。
特恩布爾一直在削弱阿博特的領導力，他利用阿博特滿意度的下降以及聯盟在 Newspoll 的兩黨傾向評分上低於 ALP 的情況。特恩布爾在失去阿博特在2013年贏得的所有席位後贏得了2016年的選舉，在2015年11月至2016年3月期間，他的滿意度下降了21個百分點，並在2016年7月至10月期間繼續失去11個百分點。
在 Newspoll 調查中，Turnbull 較 Abbott 落後的時間更長，因此在 Scott Morrison 贏得的挑戰中，Turnbull 被撤換為領袖。
莫里森在 2019 年意外贏得選舉，但隨後因在 2019-20 年叢林大火期間缺席而受到批評，導致支持率慘遭損失 – 8 個百分點，而在布列塔尼-希金斯（Brittany Higgins）強姦指控襲擊政府後，支持率又出現另一輪損失。
2022 年，莫里森輸給了阿爾巴尼，阿爾巴尼作為反對黨領袖，曾因叢林大火和希金斯風波針對莫里森出任首相。
For his first 2½ years as Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese has avoided something that befell all his predecessors, Labor and Liberal alike, in the past three decades: a sudden, catastrophic fall of personal support in Newspoll.
Every prime minister since John Howard’s election in 1996 has had a sudden fall in Newspoll’s satisfaction ratings of between eight and 24 percentage points after breaking a major promise, a failure of leadership or a loss of public faith after a bad decision.
Albanese has suffered a decline in satisfaction – falling 10 points over an eight-month period to Monday’s first Newspoll of the year – but it has been more of a gradual decline without the short, sharp jolt of a catastrophic fall that all his predecessors had suffered.
Only Howard survived such a catastrophic collapse in popular support as prime minister to lead the government to the next election and win.
Howard’s catastrophic fall in support by 14 percentage points in just six weeks was a result of his decision to adopt a GST at the next election – 1998 – after pledging to “never ever” introduce a goods and services tax.
He kept the Liberal leadership through to the election, which he won after a massive loss of seats and a slashing of the Coalition’s huge majority. Howard remained prime minister after the election and went on to become Australia’s second-longest-serving prime minister.
He is the only PM to survive then go on to prosper after a catastrophic loss of personal support.
Howard’s immediate successor, Kevin Rudd, and then Julia Gillard, Tony Abbott, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, all lost their leadership or the ensuing election after they all had catastrophic losses in the Newspoll satisfaction survey.
Rudd and Abbott were replaced by their colleagues after failing on climate change and immigration and breaking budget promises and appointing Prince Phillip as a knight in the Australia Day honours list, respectively.
Gillard won the 2010 election after replacing Rudd but then suffered a catastrophic loss of support – 11 points – when she broke her election promise to never lead a government that had a carbon tax.
The Labor government never recovered and Rudd replaced Gillard as Labor leader and prime minister shortly before losing the 2013 election.
Although Abbott won with a sweeping majority at the 2013 election, his personal support suffered two big hits when he broke election promises not to cut health and education and then when he surprised even his own colleagues by making Prince Philip a knight.
Turnbull, who had been undermining Abbott’s leadership, used the fall in Abbott’s satisfaction and the Coalition’s fall below the ALP on two-party preferred ratings in Newspoll. Turnbull won the 2016 election after losing all but one of the seats Abbott won in 2013 after he had suffered a 21-point fall in satisfaction between November 2015 and March 2016 and went on lose 11 points between July and October 2016.
After falling behind in Newspoll surveys for longer than Abbott had, Turnbull was removed as leader in a challenge that was won by Scott Morrison.
Morrison scored a surprise election win in 2019 but then has a catastrophic loss of support – eight points – after being criticised for being absent during the 2019-20 bushfires and then another round of losses after the attacks on the government over the Brittany Higgins rape allegations.
In 2022, Morrison lost to Albanese who, as opposition leader, had targeted Morrison as prime minister over the bushfires and the Higgins furore.
Dennis ShanahanNational Editor
Dennis Shanahan has been The Australian’s Canberra Bureau Chief, then Political Editor and now National Editor based in the Federal Parliamentary Press Gallery since 1989 covering every Budget, election and prime minister since then. He has been in journalism since 1971 and has a master’s Degree in Journalism from Columbia University, New York.
陳旭@perth 